05/29/2012
New Job Update - Meeting Goals, Adding Responsibilities
I have been in my new job for over two months now, and I have been incredibly busy - and productive - which is part of the reason my posting frequency has declined over the last few months.
But things are going great! And as of last week, I have already met my production goals for the entire year. :) Of course I'm not about to relax - my team could double our bonus if we meet the stretch goal, which is 133% of our actual goal. And we fully intend to do so.
I am relieved that starting from scratch to build a new portfolio of clients has not been as difficult as I'd anticipated. I've been able to get new clients from my own referral sources, to convince former clients to move with me, and to generate referrals from my new colleagues on the commercial side by getting to know them and their clients. It is new for me to be truly busy every single day with calls to return, people to take to lunch, questions to ask, new policies to research. But I feel so much better because I know I'm learning and achieving and exceeding expectations.
Also my new role comes with a lot more responsibility. I'm going to be interviewing and helping to select our administrative staff; I've been asked to give my opinions on our website and marketing materials; I have a much larger expense account to manage and dole out. It has been great to step up and define the boundaries myself and help be a formative part of creating our team and its brand so far. It's really making time fly by though.
Oh, and of course getting used to my new salary has been quite nice as well. It's been awhile since I had to set new goals and figure out just where to direct the money I have coming in.
I am also still trying to develop relationships with all my new colleagues and stay in touch with old ones. Plus I have made a few new friends outside of the office that are keeping me busy, particularly now that the weather is nice. Everyone wants to go out all the time, whether to a patio, pool or to exercise! Not to mention that I have been dating a bit as of late, as one of my recent posts indicated...
All in all it is shaping up to be a great year after all! I wasn't so sure a few months ago, but I am glad I made it through the rough patch to get to where I am today.
But things are going great! And as of last week, I have already met my production goals for the entire year. :) Of course I'm not about to relax - my team could double our bonus if we meet the stretch goal, which is 133% of our actual goal. And we fully intend to do so.
I am relieved that starting from scratch to build a new portfolio of clients has not been as difficult as I'd anticipated. I've been able to get new clients from my own referral sources, to convince former clients to move with me, and to generate referrals from my new colleagues on the commercial side by getting to know them and their clients. It is new for me to be truly busy every single day with calls to return, people to take to lunch, questions to ask, new policies to research. But I feel so much better because I know I'm learning and achieving and exceeding expectations.
Also my new role comes with a lot more responsibility. I'm going to be interviewing and helping to select our administrative staff; I've been asked to give my opinions on our website and marketing materials; I have a much larger expense account to manage and dole out. It has been great to step up and define the boundaries myself and help be a formative part of creating our team and its brand so far. It's really making time fly by though.
Oh, and of course getting used to my new salary has been quite nice as well. It's been awhile since I had to set new goals and figure out just where to direct the money I have coming in.
I am also still trying to develop relationships with all my new colleagues and stay in touch with old ones. Plus I have made a few new friends outside of the office that are keeping me busy, particularly now that the weather is nice. Everyone wants to go out all the time, whether to a patio, pool or to exercise! Not to mention that I have been dating a bit as of late, as one of my recent posts indicated...
All in all it is shaping up to be a great year after all! I wasn't so sure a few months ago, but I am glad I made it through the rough patch to get to where I am today.
najtanszy kredyt gotówkowy kredyt gotówkowy kalkulator kredyt na remont
05/28/2012
Containment Theory Blows Sky High: German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45; French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
The Pollyannas who thought the European recession would be short, shallow, and contained to the periphery have another thing coming. All three ideas were downright silly as I have long stated.
French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
Markit reports French private sector output falls at sharpest rate for over three years.
Markit reports German private sector returns to contraction.
For a look at the European PMI in general please see Eurozone PMI Disaster - Worst Downturn Since Mid-2009, Manufacturing and Composite at 35-Month Low; Expect Numerous GDP Downgrades, Missed Budget Targets
In the above link I stated "Europe is in a full-blown recession and for the first time in about a year we did not see any Pollyanna comments from Markit economists. Perhaps the news has sunk in that as I have repeatedly said, this recession will be long and deep and Germany would not escape."
More Pollyanna Comments from Markit
I spoke way too soon. Check out this nonsense from Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit on the German PMI report:
"Services growth held its ground during May, highlighting resilient domestic demand, but weakening manufacturing output brought the German economy at large into mild contraction for the first time since last November. The underperformance of manufacturing relative to services has not been as extreme since the low point of the recession in early 2009, with a key driver then as now being a steep downturn in export sales. May?s drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years, and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09.
?Continued service sector growth and job hiring is therefore providing an important counterbalance to manufacturing weakness. May?s upturn in service providers? confidence about the year ahead outlook is especially encouraging given the headwinds facing the manufacturing sector and ongoing worries among firms about how the euro crisis will play out.".
Service Sector Sap
Please, spare me the sap about service sector confidence in the face of severe manufacturing weakness, plunges in new orders, and an overall collapse in the European economy. The German service sector is going to follow manufacturing in due time, probably sooner rather than later.
Every step of the way pollyannas cling to the slightest hope that somehow Germany is going to avoid a recession or will decouple from the European economy. Mathematically it is nearly impossible.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
Markit reports French private sector output falls at sharpest rate for over three years.
Key points:German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45
- Flash France Composite Output Index drops to 44.7 (45.9 in April), 37-month low
- Flash France Services Activity Index unchanged at 45.2
- Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 44.4 (46.9 in April), 36-month low
- Flash France Manufacturing Output Index declines to 43.6 (47.5 in April), 36-month low
Latest Flash PMI® data signalled that the decline in French private sector output accelerated further in May.
Marked declines in activity were recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors during May. In the former, output decreased at the fastest pace in three years, while in the latter the rate of contraction was unchanged from April?s substantial pace.
Lower activity reflected a further marked reduction in new business during May. The latest drop in new work was at a rate broadly unchanged from April?s three-year record. Panellists commented on weak market demand, lower client activity levels and economic uncertainty as factors leading to the latest fall in new business. Manufacturers reported a particularly sharp reduction in new orders, with the latest decline the fastest for just over three years.
Outstanding business fell at the sharpest rate since July 2009, with declines recorded in both manufacturing and services. Employment also decreased at a faster pace in May, with the latest drop the sharpest for over two years. Job shedding was broad-based across both sectors, with manufacturers indicating the steeper decline in payroll numbers.
Markit reports German private sector returns to contraction.
German private sector returns to contraction. Manufacturing output falls at sharpest pace for nearly three years, offsetting resilient services growth.European PMI Plunges
Key points:
- Flash Germany Composite Output Index at 49.6 (50.5 in April), 6-month low.
- Flash Germany Services Activity Index at 52.2 (52.2 in April), unchanged.
- Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 45.0 (46.2 in April), 35-month low.
- Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index at 44.6 (47.3 in April), 35-month low.
Manufacturers in Germany pointed to a drop in output for the second month running, and the rate of reduction was the steepest since June 2009.
May data highlighted divergent employment trends across the manufacturing and service sectors. Net job hiring returned to the service economy, but manufacturers signalled the greatest degree of workforce reduction since February 2010.
German private sector input cost inflation was robust and slightly faster than in April, while output charges increased at the sharpest pace since July 2011. The indices measuring inflationary pressures also showed a divergence between manufacturing and services during May.
Manufacturers reported the lowest level of input price inflation for four months, but service providers signalled a much sharper rise in their cost burdens over the month. Moreover, output price inflation in the service economy hit a 14-month high, while factory gate price inflation across the manufacturing sector was the weakest since November 2011.
For a look at the European PMI in general please see Eurozone PMI Disaster - Worst Downturn Since Mid-2009, Manufacturing and Composite at 35-Month Low; Expect Numerous GDP Downgrades, Missed Budget Targets
In the above link I stated "Europe is in a full-blown recession and for the first time in about a year we did not see any Pollyanna comments from Markit economists. Perhaps the news has sunk in that as I have repeatedly said, this recession will be long and deep and Germany would not escape."
More Pollyanna Comments from Markit
I spoke way too soon. Check out this nonsense from Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit on the German PMI report:
"Services growth held its ground during May, highlighting resilient domestic demand, but weakening manufacturing output brought the German economy at large into mild contraction for the first time since last November. The underperformance of manufacturing relative to services has not been as extreme since the low point of the recession in early 2009, with a key driver then as now being a steep downturn in export sales. May?s drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years, and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09.
?Continued service sector growth and job hiring is therefore providing an important counterbalance to manufacturing weakness. May?s upturn in service providers? confidence about the year ahead outlook is especially encouraging given the headwinds facing the manufacturing sector and ongoing worries among firms about how the euro crisis will play out.".
Service Sector Sap
Please, spare me the sap about service sector confidence in the face of severe manufacturing weakness, plunges in new orders, and an overall collapse in the European economy. The German service sector is going to follow manufacturing in due time, probably sooner rather than later.
Every step of the way pollyannas cling to the slightest hope that somehow Germany is going to avoid a recession or will decouple from the European economy. Mathematically it is nearly impossible.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Section 8 Tenant a Known Criminal
One of my tenants has been getting into some trouble with the law. My knowledge of it started the week of Christmas when a housing inspector for the city called me to let me know that they were investigating due to some property damage. The front door appeared to have been kicked in (again), and it was a fire hazard I needed to address immediately.
When they went to inspect for that, they also found the property was in general not being taken good care of. Inside there were piles of clothes - none hung in the closets - people sleeping here and there, and general lack of tidiness. So the tenant was also cited for a "housekeeping violation." She also told me that the water had been cut off 6 months ago, but the tenant was still living there, so they thought she may be stealing water and would be investigating.
She also mentioned that there had been a few complaints nearby about loud parties and that the police had been called out the weekend prior - which I'd never heard anything about. She tentatively told me that I might consider evicting this woman, that she didn't appear to be taking good care of my property. I told her I'd investigate all this and thanked her for the heads up (her only job was to get me to fix the door, after all).
I called my contractor to fix the door and he promised to go over that day.
A few hours later he called me to tell me he was at the property, but couldn't get in because the police were there arresting the tenant - and Child Protective Services was collecting her children.
A few hours after that a detective called me. He said he'd found out the tenant was on housing during the arrest and got my number from my contractor at the scene. He wanted to let me know what was going on. He said the gang unit had been out there the week before and had been watching the property because apparently my tenant's male relatives/friends had been hanging out there and the police had gotten wind of another party being planned. They'd gone over to warn her to cancel it, and had found stolen water meters on the premises.
He recommended that I evict her if I could, and just wanted to let me know all this since I wasn't likely to hear of it otherwise (the rent checks come automatically from the city so if my contractor hadn't been there and the detective hadn't called I may never have heard about all this).
In addition he told me that she had warrants out for two felony probation violations and that they'd been looking for her for 8-9 months. So she was being hauled off to jail. I was shocked and asked how on earth they hadn't managed to locate her since she was on public housing assistance and her address was clearly a matter of public record with the housing department. He expressed his regret about that and more or less made it clear that those two departments maintain separate records and don't really communicate much.
The even MORE shocking thing is that when I contacted the Housing Department to fax them a copy of my lease termination notice, the housing rep for my tenant said it wasn't for sure that my tenant would be kicked out of the housing program and asked if I was sure I wanted to terminate the lease. I demanded angrily to know under what circumstances she thought that our tax dollars should be supporting a woman who had warrants out for her arrest for felony probation violations and who had gang ties and who was stealing utilities from the city and had blatantly and repeatedly failed to maintain my property.
Her response was that it "wasn't for sure" whether she'd lose her Section 8 voucher, and I told her that she certainly wouldn't be remaining in my unit either way.
I'm considering bailing from the whole program now. I currently don't have any other tenants on Section 8, and though overall I've had a good experience with Section 8 tenants, the fact that the system doesn't screen for criminal activity - or even seem to mind it - is shocking and appalling to me as a taxpayer and landlord.
When they went to inspect for that, they also found the property was in general not being taken good care of. Inside there were piles of clothes - none hung in the closets - people sleeping here and there, and general lack of tidiness. So the tenant was also cited for a "housekeeping violation." She also told me that the water had been cut off 6 months ago, but the tenant was still living there, so they thought she may be stealing water and would be investigating.
She also mentioned that there had been a few complaints nearby about loud parties and that the police had been called out the weekend prior - which I'd never heard anything about. She tentatively told me that I might consider evicting this woman, that she didn't appear to be taking good care of my property. I told her I'd investigate all this and thanked her for the heads up (her only job was to get me to fix the door, after all).
I called my contractor to fix the door and he promised to go over that day.
A few hours later he called me to tell me he was at the property, but couldn't get in because the police were there arresting the tenant - and Child Protective Services was collecting her children.
A few hours after that a detective called me. He said he'd found out the tenant was on housing during the arrest and got my number from my contractor at the scene. He wanted to let me know what was going on. He said the gang unit had been out there the week before and had been watching the property because apparently my tenant's male relatives/friends had been hanging out there and the police had gotten wind of another party being planned. They'd gone over to warn her to cancel it, and had found stolen water meters on the premises.
He recommended that I evict her if I could, and just wanted to let me know all this since I wasn't likely to hear of it otherwise (the rent checks come automatically from the city so if my contractor hadn't been there and the detective hadn't called I may never have heard about all this).
In addition he told me that she had warrants out for two felony probation violations and that they'd been looking for her for 8-9 months. So she was being hauled off to jail. I was shocked and asked how on earth they hadn't managed to locate her since she was on public housing assistance and her address was clearly a matter of public record with the housing department. He expressed his regret about that and more or less made it clear that those two departments maintain separate records and don't really communicate much.
The even MORE shocking thing is that when I contacted the Housing Department to fax them a copy of my lease termination notice, the housing rep for my tenant said it wasn't for sure that my tenant would be kicked out of the housing program and asked if I was sure I wanted to terminate the lease. I demanded angrily to know under what circumstances she thought that our tax dollars should be supporting a woman who had warrants out for her arrest for felony probation violations and who had gang ties and who was stealing utilities from the city and had blatantly and repeatedly failed to maintain my property.
Her response was that it "wasn't for sure" whether she'd lose her Section 8 voucher, and I told her that she certainly wouldn't be remaining in my unit either way.
I'm considering bailing from the whole program now. I currently don't have any other tenants on Section 8, and though overall I've had a good experience with Section 8 tenants, the fact that the system doesn't screen for criminal activity - or even seem to mind it - is shocking and appalling to me as a taxpayer and landlord.
Japanese Debt Downgraded by Fitch; No Urgency for Japan (Until Sudden Panic Hits)
With Japan's public debt about to hit 240% of GDP, Fitch Downgrades Japan's Sovereign Rating
As Japan's debt careens out of control, Keynesian clowns do not want to do anything about it for fear of hurting the recovery. They have been saying the same thing for over 20 years.
Nonetheless, the rally cry remains No Urgency for Japan to Deal With Debt.
The words "as long as" appeared twice in the above article. The key phrase was "As long as these yields remain at such historically low levels ...".
Japan will go from no sense of urgency to panic urgency in a short sudden burst. Unfortunately, I cannot tell you when. However, I can say that the slippage in exports and current account surplus is very important.
Given Japan's aging demographics, pension plans became net sellers of bonds last year.
For now, Japanese corporations purchase enough bonds to stem the tide. However, if exports collapse or interest rates rise significantly for any reason, the party will be immediately over.
Bear in mind that "significantly" means a mere hike in the 10-year rate to 2.5% or so, perhaps less. Such a hike would consume 100% of Japan's revenues just to meet interest on the national debt.
At that point, whenever it is, the choice for Japan will be print or default. Either way, panic will set in along with a full-blown global currency crisis.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
The ratings agency Fitch on Tuesday lowered its assessment of Japan?s sovereign credit to A+, an investment grade just above the likes of Spain and Italy, and criticized Tokyo for not doing more to pare down its burgeoning debt.No Urgency for Japan (Until Sudden Panic Hits)
Japan?s public debt will hit almost 240 percent of its gross domestic product by the end of the year, Fitch warned.
The new rating also heightens the pressure on Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to rein in spending and raise taxes at a delicate time, when the Japanese economy is still recovering from natural and nuclear disasters last year.
Mr. Noda has warned that Japan could eventually face a debt crisis akin to that afflicting Europe and is staking his job on a plan to double the consumption tax rate to 10 percent by late 2015. That increase, he has argued, is necessary to pay for soaring welfare costs and pension payments.
But lawmakers even within his own party have attacked the plan, saying it would put a damper on growth just as Japan?s recovery gets on track. Even if Japan does double its sales tax, the revenue will most likely not be enough to balance in the medium term.
According to the statement, Fitch lowered Japan?s long-term local currency rating to A+ from AA. It also cut the country?s foreign currency rating to A+ from AA. Fitch said the outlook was negative for both.
The A+ rating puts Japan four notches below the ratings of other major economies like the United States, Britain, France and Germany, which all retain the top AAA rating from Fitch. Japan?s grade is now just one notch above Spain?s and two above Italy?s, countries that have struggled in the European debt crisis. Two other global ratings agencies, Standard & Poor?s and Moody?s Investors Service, lowered Japan?s credit rating last year.
As Japan's debt careens out of control, Keynesian clowns do not want to do anything about it for fear of hurting the recovery. They have been saying the same thing for over 20 years.
Nonetheless, the rally cry remains No Urgency for Japan to Deal With Debt.
With Japan awash in cheap funding provided by domestic savings and local banks continuing to park their cash in government bonds, analysts tell CNBC the country faces no urgency in dealing with its rising public debt, despite the latest ratings cut by Fitch."As Long As ..."
The likelihood of a Europe style debt crisis for the world's third-largest economy remains low, say analysts, because over 90 percent of government debt is domestically owned.
"For as long as Japan's debt is well-held by local savers and local investors - 93 percent - the impact, I think, on risk assets is going to be quite marginal," John Woods, Chief Investment Officer, Citi Private Bank told CNBC's "The Call" on Wednesday.
Those low yields, however, also mean policy makers are under no pressure to deal with total debt that is more than twice as large as the country?s $5 trillion economy. Japan?s government has submitted plans to double the sales tax by 2015 but the law could split the ruling party and force early election, according to Reuters.
"As long as these yields remain at such historically low levels, the impetus for the government to meaningfully change and reform its environment is going to be quite limited," Woods said.
Thomas Bryne, senior vice president at Moody?s Investor Service, said on CNBC?s ?Asia Squawk Box? Wednesday that his firm had issued plenty of negative commentary since it downgraded Japan in August last year.
?We?re concerned about the slippage in exports, perhaps the slippage in current account surplus, probably more concerned about the slippage in the fiscal deficit and we also note that attempts to put Japan on a long-term sustainable fiscal track are still partial and tentative,? he said.
The words "as long as" appeared twice in the above article. The key phrase was "As long as these yields remain at such historically low levels ...".
Japan will go from no sense of urgency to panic urgency in a short sudden burst. Unfortunately, I cannot tell you when. However, I can say that the slippage in exports and current account surplus is very important.
Given Japan's aging demographics, pension plans became net sellers of bonds last year.
For now, Japanese corporations purchase enough bonds to stem the tide. However, if exports collapse or interest rates rise significantly for any reason, the party will be immediately over.
Bear in mind that "significantly" means a mere hike in the 10-year rate to 2.5% or so, perhaps less. Such a hike would consume 100% of Japan's revenues just to meet interest on the national debt.
At that point, whenever it is, the choice for Japan will be print or default. Either way, panic will set in along with a full-blown global currency crisis.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Containment Theory Blows Sky High: German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45; French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
The Pollyannas who thought the European recession would be short, shallow, and contained to the periphery have another thing coming. All three ideas were downright silly as I have long stated.
French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
Markit reports French private sector output falls at sharpest rate for over three years.
Markit reports German private sector returns to contraction.
For a look at the European PMI in general please see Eurozone PMI Disaster - Worst Downturn Since Mid-2009, Manufacturing and Composite at 35-Month Low; Expect Numerous GDP Downgrades, Missed Budget Targets
In the above link I stated "Europe is in a full-blown recession and for the first time in about a year we did not see any Pollyanna comments from Markit economists. Perhaps the news has sunk in that as I have repeatedly said, this recession will be long and deep and Germany would not escape."
More Pollyanna Comments from Markit
I spoke way too soon. Check out this nonsense from Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit on the German PMI report:
"Services growth held its ground during May, highlighting resilient domestic demand, but weakening manufacturing output brought the German economy at large into mild contraction for the first time since last November. The underperformance of manufacturing relative to services has not been as extreme since the low point of the recession in early 2009, with a key driver then as now being a steep downturn in export sales. May?s drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years, and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09.
?Continued service sector growth and job hiring is therefore providing an important counterbalance to manufacturing weakness. May?s upturn in service providers? confidence about the year ahead outlook is especially encouraging given the headwinds facing the manufacturing sector and ongoing worries among firms about how the euro crisis will play out.".
Service Sector Sap
Please, spare me the sap about service sector confidence in the face of severe manufacturing weakness, plunges in new orders, and an overall collapse in the European economy. The German service sector is going to follow manufacturing in due time, probably sooner rather than later.
Every step of the way pollyannas cling to the slightest hope that somehow Germany is going to avoid a recession or will decouple from the European economy. Mathematically it is nearly impossible.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
Markit reports French private sector output falls at sharpest rate for over three years.
Key points:German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45
- Flash France Composite Output Index drops to 44.7 (45.9 in April), 37-month low
- Flash France Services Activity Index unchanged at 45.2
- Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 44.4 (46.9 in April), 36-month low
- Flash France Manufacturing Output Index declines to 43.6 (47.5 in April), 36-month low
Latest Flash PMI® data signalled that the decline in French private sector output accelerated further in May.
Marked declines in activity were recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors during May. In the former, output decreased at the fastest pace in three years, while in the latter the rate of contraction was unchanged from April?s substantial pace.
Lower activity reflected a further marked reduction in new business during May. The latest drop in new work was at a rate broadly unchanged from April?s three-year record. Panellists commented on weak market demand, lower client activity levels and economic uncertainty as factors leading to the latest fall in new business. Manufacturers reported a particularly sharp reduction in new orders, with the latest decline the fastest for just over three years.
Outstanding business fell at the sharpest rate since July 2009, with declines recorded in both manufacturing and services. Employment also decreased at a faster pace in May, with the latest drop the sharpest for over two years. Job shedding was broad-based across both sectors, with manufacturers indicating the steeper decline in payroll numbers.
Markit reports German private sector returns to contraction.
German private sector returns to contraction. Manufacturing output falls at sharpest pace for nearly three years, offsetting resilient services growth.European PMI Plunges
Key points:
- Flash Germany Composite Output Index at 49.6 (50.5 in April), 6-month low.
- Flash Germany Services Activity Index at 52.2 (52.2 in April), unchanged.
- Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 45.0 (46.2 in April), 35-month low.
- Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index at 44.6 (47.3 in April), 35-month low.
Manufacturers in Germany pointed to a drop in output for the second month running, and the rate of reduction was the steepest since June 2009.
May data highlighted divergent employment trends across the manufacturing and service sectors. Net job hiring returned to the service economy, but manufacturers signalled the greatest degree of workforce reduction since February 2010.
German private sector input cost inflation was robust and slightly faster than in April, while output charges increased at the sharpest pace since July 2011. The indices measuring inflationary pressures also showed a divergence between manufacturing and services during May.
Manufacturers reported the lowest level of input price inflation for four months, but service providers signalled a much sharper rise in their cost burdens over the month. Moreover, output price inflation in the service economy hit a 14-month high, while factory gate price inflation across the manufacturing sector was the weakest since November 2011.
For a look at the European PMI in general please see Eurozone PMI Disaster - Worst Downturn Since Mid-2009, Manufacturing and Composite at 35-Month Low; Expect Numerous GDP Downgrades, Missed Budget Targets
In the above link I stated "Europe is in a full-blown recession and for the first time in about a year we did not see any Pollyanna comments from Markit economists. Perhaps the news has sunk in that as I have repeatedly said, this recession will be long and deep and Germany would not escape."
More Pollyanna Comments from Markit
I spoke way too soon. Check out this nonsense from Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit on the German PMI report:
"Services growth held its ground during May, highlighting resilient domestic demand, but weakening manufacturing output brought the German economy at large into mild contraction for the first time since last November. The underperformance of manufacturing relative to services has not been as extreme since the low point of the recession in early 2009, with a key driver then as now being a steep downturn in export sales. May?s drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years, and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09.
?Continued service sector growth and job hiring is therefore providing an important counterbalance to manufacturing weakness. May?s upturn in service providers? confidence about the year ahead outlook is especially encouraging given the headwinds facing the manufacturing sector and ongoing worries among firms about how the euro crisis will play out.".
Service Sector Sap
Please, spare me the sap about service sector confidence in the face of severe manufacturing weakness, plunges in new orders, and an overall collapse in the European economy. The German service sector is going to follow manufacturing in due time, probably sooner rather than later.
Every step of the way pollyannas cling to the slightest hope that somehow Germany is going to avoid a recession or will decouple from the European economy. Mathematically it is nearly impossible.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
kredyt konsolidacyjny kalkulator kredyt studencki kredyt kalkulator
05/27/2012
Spain's Plans to Recapitalize Bankia Will Put Germany, ECB at Risk; When Does the Ponzi Scheme Collapse?
Inquiring minds are interested in the recapitalization plans for the Bankia. Please consider this chain of posts.
ABC News reports Spain's Bankia set for massive bailout.
Inquiring minds just may be asking "Just where is this money coming from?" That's a good question.
Reuters reports Spain may recapitalize Bankia with government debt.
Got That? A Spanish government source says the plan is float what amounts to junk bonds, pawn them off to the ECB and use the proceeds to "recapitalize" Bankia.
Of course the ECB (bankrolled by Germany) is at enormous risk were this preposterous scheme to actually happen.
This is what I want to know: When does Germany say it has had enough of these preposterous schemes?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
ABC News reports Spain's Bankia set for massive bailout.
Spain's fourth-biggest bank Bankia says it is certain of securing the 19 billion euros ($24 billion) in state aid it is seeking in the largest bank bailout in the country's history.Devil in the Details
Bankia is considered key to the country's financial system, and a failure would contaminate the entire banking sector.
The plight of Bankia - which holds some 10 per cent of the nation's bank deposits - has added to the concerns over the massive debt crisis gripping Spain and the rest of the eurozone.
Bankia president Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri has sought to reassure investors and the public about the future of the struggling bank at a press conference called the day after it announced huge losses, and asked for a government rescue.
"I am certain that the Spanish state will obtain the financing so we will receive the 19 billion euros. That's the commitment," said Mr Goirigolzarri, adding that he expected to get the funds in July.
Inquiring minds just may be asking "Just where is this money coming from?" That's a good question.
Reuters reports Spain may recapitalize Bankia with government debt.
Spain may recapitalize Bankia with Spanish government bonds in return for shares in the bank which last week asked for rescue funding of 19 billion euros ($24 billion), a government source said on Sunday.Ponzi Financing
Bankia could use the sovereign paper as collateral to get cash from the European Central Bank, forcing the ECB to get involved with restructuring Spain's banking sector, laid low by lending to property developers in a boom that ended in 2008.
ECB policymakers, who have pumped over 1 trillion euros into Europe's financial system in recent months, are resisting pressure to do more to shore up the euro zone.
"The biggest problem here is that the ECB could object. That's a legal issue, but technically it is possible," said Jose Carlos Diez, economist at Intermoney Valores.
Got That? A Spanish government source says the plan is float what amounts to junk bonds, pawn them off to the ECB and use the proceeds to "recapitalize" Bankia.
Of course the ECB (bankrolled by Germany) is at enormous risk were this preposterous scheme to actually happen.
This is what I want to know: When does Germany say it has had enough of these preposterous schemes?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Nearly Half of Working Wives are Primary Breadwinners
A shocking new statistic is taking center stage in the ongoing battle of the sexes: 40% of working wives now earn more than their husbands. This is according to 2009 Bureau of Labor statistics, so the figure may actually now be higher (since the recession has killed more jobs in male dominated fields such as banking and construction).
Here are a few more interesting stats from this article:
This should be exciting news for women I suppose, but as a fairly successful single female in her late 20's who seems to be chronically single, these statistics are a bit depressing to me. It seems women are now under more pressure - from society, from themselves and from men - to be educated, professionally successful and high earners. Of course we're also still under pressure to dedicate our lives to any children we bring into the world, to manage a comfortable inviting household and of course to be and manage somehow to stay "hot" well into middle age.
Meanwhile men are becoming less ambitious and educated and financially stable as a group - not to mention fatter and less healthy, if we're being honest - leaving fewer desirable partners for high achieving women (assuming that women find men desirable who are stronger, higher earners, and more educated than they are).
Don't get me wrong; I'm not trying to bash men here. And not all women are healthy or wealthy by any stretch. But overall as a group women are closing the income/career/education gap - and by many predictions we will soon soar past men in those categories. That's social progress of course, but biological/cultural tendencies don't evolve as quickly. Women and men both struggle with communication, responsibilities and respect when traditional gender roles are reversed.
Personally, I don't interact well for long with guys who aren't as smart as I am. In fact I prefer to be intellectually challenged by someone who is decidedly smarter - and/or more experienced. I could speculate as to why, but it's simply a fact. Additionally, I'd prefer to find a partner who earns at least as much as I do. It's not a deal breaker, and yes it's most important that my theoretical future husband be someone who is kind, etc., but I would prefer that his earnings be roughly in the same ballpark as mine. Income gives you options, and - for instance - I would like to have the option to stay home and focus on my theoretical future children one day, at least for awhile. If I end up making two thirds of the household earnings though, that option becomes less realistic. And while we're making a wish list let's throw in taller and older.
But if the stats in this article are any indication I may end up choosing to stay single when I can't find an available man with those traits who also happens to be interested in settling down and who - oh yeah - is also interested in me.
Here are a few more interesting stats from this article:
- In most American cities, single, childless women ages 22 to 30 are making more than their male peers, based on census data.
- By 2050, based on current trends and predictions, there will be 140 college-educated women in the U.S. for every 100 similar men.
- Nine out of the 10 U.S. job categories expected to grow most in the next decade-including nursing, accounting, postsecondary teaching-are female dominated.
- Women are increasingly preferring to remain unmarried rather than settle for men who aren't their intellectual and professional equals. The marriage rate is widely expected to continue to decline.
- While 74 percent of men told surveyors in 1977 that men should bring home the bacon and women raise the kids, only 40 percent say so today.
This should be exciting news for women I suppose, but as a fairly successful single female in her late 20's who seems to be chronically single, these statistics are a bit depressing to me. It seems women are now under more pressure - from society, from themselves and from men - to be educated, professionally successful and high earners. Of course we're also still under pressure to dedicate our lives to any children we bring into the world, to manage a comfortable inviting household and of course to be and manage somehow to stay "hot" well into middle age.
Meanwhile men are becoming less ambitious and educated and financially stable as a group - not to mention fatter and less healthy, if we're being honest - leaving fewer desirable partners for high achieving women (assuming that women find men desirable who are stronger, higher earners, and more educated than they are).
Don't get me wrong; I'm not trying to bash men here. And not all women are healthy or wealthy by any stretch. But overall as a group women are closing the income/career/education gap - and by many predictions we will soon soar past men in those categories. That's social progress of course, but biological/cultural tendencies don't evolve as quickly. Women and men both struggle with communication, responsibilities and respect when traditional gender roles are reversed.
Personally, I don't interact well for long with guys who aren't as smart as I am. In fact I prefer to be intellectually challenged by someone who is decidedly smarter - and/or more experienced. I could speculate as to why, but it's simply a fact. Additionally, I'd prefer to find a partner who earns at least as much as I do. It's not a deal breaker, and yes it's most important that my theoretical future husband be someone who is kind, etc., but I would prefer that his earnings be roughly in the same ballpark as mine. Income gives you options, and - for instance - I would like to have the option to stay home and focus on my theoretical future children one day, at least for awhile. If I end up making two thirds of the household earnings though, that option becomes less realistic. And while we're making a wish list let's throw in taller and older.
But if the stats in this article are any indication I may end up choosing to stay single when I can't find an available man with those traits who also happens to be interested in settling down and who - oh yeah - is also interested in me.
Fear vs. Anger: Door-to-Door Fear-Mongering in Ireland on Merkozy Referendum; Expect Fear-Mongering in Greece as Well
Door-to-Door May Drive Irish Towards Yes Vote in Referendum on Merkozy Pact.
Indeed, accepting funds from the Troika is one of the things that destroyed Greece, and it is pathetic that clueless, brainless, scare-mongering political shills for Brussels are now going door-to-door in an attempt to convince Irish voters the exact opposite.
Heading into the Greek June 17 national elections, expect to see door-to-door fear-mongering in Greece as well.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
In a hard-fought battle to convince Irish voters to back Europe?s unpopular fiscal discipline treaty, Ireland?s deputy finance minister has the task of convincing the leafy Dublin suburb of Templeogue.Nothing bad can possibly happen if this treaty is rejected. Accepting more bailout funds from the IMF or ESM would be the absolute worst thing for Ireland.
Going door-to-door, Brian Hayes faces scepticism and occasional abuse. One constituent calls him ?a waste of space?, another ?just a yes man?.
?If Greece goes down we are next in the firing line. I know people who are trying to put their money into US dollars. We just don?t know what is going to happen here,? says Mr O?Reilly.
?This referendum is all about fear on the one side and anger on the other,? says David Farrell, professor of politics at University College Dublin. ?Most people have no great deal of enthusiasm for it and will only vote reluctantly in this referendum.?
?The sight of soup kitchens in Greece on TV screens is concentrating minds,? says Mr Hayes, as he goes door-to-door hammering home his message.
The dominant theme of the campaign so far is a claim by the government that rejecting the treaty would bar Ireland from receiving funds from Europe?s new bailout fund ? the European Stability Mechanism. Without this insurance policy, Dublin says, Ireland will struggle to exit its EU and International Monetary Fund bailout programme on schedule at the end of 2013.
?The government is scaremongering rather than arguing the merits of the treaty. Most people are opposed to this treaty but are scared out of their wits,? says Paul Murphy, a Socialist member of the European Parliament and prominent No campaigner.
Indeed, accepting funds from the Troika is one of the things that destroyed Greece, and it is pathetic that clueless, brainless, scare-mongering political shills for Brussels are now going door-to-door in an attempt to convince Irish voters the exact opposite.
Heading into the Greek June 17 national elections, expect to see door-to-door fear-mongering in Greece as well.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
05/26/2012
My Crazy Automatic Net Worth Growth Rate
I came to a shocking realization last week when I started adding up all the ways my net worth is growing. Without even taking into account regular savings or extra debt payments, my net worth is increasing automatically by nearly $4,000 a month.
That is over $45,000 per year.
Here is the breakdown:
Mortgage principal reduction - $13,150
Car loan principal reduction - $7,380
401k Contributions - $17,000
401k Match (3%) - $3,030
LLC Interest Payments Received (my share) - $5,004
I am also saving $1,500 a month in cash, so my net worth should increase by at least $63K this year (barring stock market fluctuations). But all of the above items are happening automatically, with zero effort on my part. I am just stunned by this for some reason; it's a calculation I've never done before. Just a few years ago I was only making $45,000 a year as a new member of the working world - and now my net worth is going up by that much every year!
Obviously a lot of that growth is simply because I have a lot of debt that is amortizing - and net worth isn't everything. Still, it's kind of reassuring to know that my net worth is ticking gradually upward no matter what I do (as long as I make my payments and don't suspend my 401k contributions of course).
I am truly grateful and surprised by how quickly my financial position has improved since I graduated from college.
That is over $45,000 per year.
Here is the breakdown:
Mortgage principal reduction - $13,150
Car loan principal reduction - $7,380
401k Contributions - $17,000
401k Match (3%) - $3,030
LLC Interest Payments Received (my share) - $5,004
I am also saving $1,500 a month in cash, so my net worth should increase by at least $63K this year (barring stock market fluctuations). But all of the above items are happening automatically, with zero effort on my part. I am just stunned by this for some reason; it's a calculation I've never done before. Just a few years ago I was only making $45,000 a year as a new member of the working world - and now my net worth is going up by that much every year!
Obviously a lot of that growth is simply because I have a lot of debt that is amortizing - and net worth isn't everything. Still, it's kind of reassuring to know that my net worth is ticking gradually upward no matter what I do (as long as I make my payments and don't suspend my 401k contributions of course).
I am truly grateful and surprised by how quickly my financial position has improved since I graduated from college.
Negotiating a New Compensation Package
Just over a week ago I found out I am getting laid off. Since then I've been navigating the complex world of internal Human Resources and having my negotiation skills challenged when it comes to severance and other benefits.
Luckily I had another job opportunity already in the works. I had interviewed with them several weeks before I got the news that I would be needing a new job, and they've been recruiting me pretty aggressively. I've been wined and dined here locally, I've met all the big players in the company, and I've even been teased with talk of equity and of benefiting when the company goes public in a few years.
I had just been talked into a final round of interviews "for my benefit" at corporate headquarters, where I could get an even better sense of the corporate culture. I had drinks again with a friend at the new potential employer just before leaving, and he told me I had better head up there "ready to make a decision." I played coy, but he was talking like I had already decided to join the team. "Ask for whatever you want!" he insisted. "You're golden."
So I bought a new suit and some panty hose, packed a bag and headed off for two days of interviews at corporate headquarters. I was trying really hard not to suddenly seem eager for a job after playing hard to get for over a month; but of course I DID really want - and need - the job offer. I just wanted to get an offer on the table before news traveled through the grapevine of my pending layoff. I was sure I could still get the job, but I didn't want the offer to drop by $20K.
It was a huge whirlwind. I had meetings with a different person every half hour from arrival at 1pm onward. A SVP picked me up at the airport and gave me a driving tour, then I met with another SVP, an assistant/underwriter, the head of the mortgage department, the EVP of Private Banking, then another SVP.
At that point the recruiter I'd been talking to all along (my potential new boss - or new boss' boss) took me to my hotel to check into my awesome suite. He is a relatively young, laid back but direct type of guy who apparently likes to have a good time. I felt comfortable with him but had met him only once, at my first round of interviews. However he'd been calling me at least weekly since then to run other candidates by me for another position. He seemed surprisingly candid with me. I'll call him Sam here.
I had about 20 minutes to freshen up before heading by private car to a team holiday party with a local law firm; then the head of the Private Bank took me for drinks at a restaurant while we waited for Sam and another banker. We dined on steak and pate and oysters and tartar and wine and desserts and dessert drinks. I thought the long day was finally over, but Sam ushered us into a bar next door as we walked out of the restaurant.
Soon it was just me and Sam, and it was after midnight. This is the context in which I negotiated my new compensation package. It's a little fuzzy, but he asked me what I thought in a pointed way, and I said I was ready to talk specifics. I liked everything I'd heard but it was time to see if we were on the same page, and I'd like to make a decision "either way" before the end of the year.
I think he literally said "So what's it going to take?" Or at least it was something very close to that as he smirked, obviously pleased to test my less-than-sober negotiating skills (which I suppose is a fair thing to need to judge when looking to hire a banker). I stammered, but tried to be smooth as I said "Well, based on what I make now, and the promotion I'm up for in a few months--"
He cut me off and asked what I make now. I was honest about my base salary - about $78K - but I quickly added that between bonus comp and easy-to-meet goals and the promotion I was about to get, not to mention the long term benefits such as 401k that I've accrued, that I would like to see a new base of six figures to really be persuaded to make a move and take on the new challenges.
He said there was no way I could expect that much of a bump at my company when I get promoted to VP (he used to be a manager at my firm), but he was smiling. He touted their significantly larger bonus incentives - 25% for meeting your goal, 50% for exceeding it in a fairly basic way and up to 75% if you really blow it out of the water - as though pointing out that regardless of my base salary I'd be making a lot more.
We ordered more drinks - my third Drambuie since dinner - and I smiled right back and we bantered about how aggressive my production goals would be. I claimed they seemed aggressive, and he scoffed at me, assuring me that he would personally make SURE that I reached my goal with ease each year. Finally he said, "What if I were to make your first year's bonus guaranteed? Would that make you feel better?" I smiled and shrugged and said it certainly wouldn't hurt.
Later (a minute? 20 minutes?) he handed me his iphone. He was making a list on the "lists" app, and he said "How does that look to you?" He had typed out "$90K base salary with $5K car allowance" on the first line. On the second line it said "First year Guaranteed STI of $22,500." I nodded, sipped my cocktail, and just looked at him.
"What about vacation?" I asked for some reason. I asked for four weeks, and he shook his head and typed it in. "Anything else?" he challenged, pretending to be exasperated but clearly relishing the whole exchange. So I asked about a signing bonus, my drunken confidence run amok. He raised his eyebrows and made some joke, leaning forward suddenly. I was saying that if I left before January that I would receive my year end bonus which was payable January 31.
I was distracted by his hand which was suddenly and solidly on my leg as he followed up with "Well how much are you expecting?" I ignored his hand, smiled sweetly and responded firmly, "Ten thousand ought to cover it." That is more than twice what I'm expecting, and he should know that since he knows my base, but as he whisked his hand away he dutifully typed that in too.
He added a line item for company provided iphone and ipad and asked me to review the list as we tabbed out. "I would definitely consider that offer," I assured him, then changing the subject to berate him for keeping me out past 1am. I insisted that he must be trying to test me with a full day of interviews - beginning with an early breakfast - on a decided lack of sleep.
The next afternoon, thoroughly exhausted after 10 more meetings, I met with him again and he told me to expect an offer in writing this week. Allegedly it should look "like what we discussed last night." We shall see.
:)
Luckily I had another job opportunity already in the works. I had interviewed with them several weeks before I got the news that I would be needing a new job, and they've been recruiting me pretty aggressively. I've been wined and dined here locally, I've met all the big players in the company, and I've even been teased with talk of equity and of benefiting when the company goes public in a few years.
I had just been talked into a final round of interviews "for my benefit" at corporate headquarters, where I could get an even better sense of the corporate culture. I had drinks again with a friend at the new potential employer just before leaving, and he told me I had better head up there "ready to make a decision." I played coy, but he was talking like I had already decided to join the team. "Ask for whatever you want!" he insisted. "You're golden."
So I bought a new suit and some panty hose, packed a bag and headed off for two days of interviews at corporate headquarters. I was trying really hard not to suddenly seem eager for a job after playing hard to get for over a month; but of course I DID really want - and need - the job offer. I just wanted to get an offer on the table before news traveled through the grapevine of my pending layoff. I was sure I could still get the job, but I didn't want the offer to drop by $20K.
It was a huge whirlwind. I had meetings with a different person every half hour from arrival at 1pm onward. A SVP picked me up at the airport and gave me a driving tour, then I met with another SVP, an assistant/underwriter, the head of the mortgage department, the EVP of Private Banking, then another SVP.
At that point the recruiter I'd been talking to all along (my potential new boss - or new boss' boss) took me to my hotel to check into my awesome suite. He is a relatively young, laid back but direct type of guy who apparently likes to have a good time. I felt comfortable with him but had met him only once, at my first round of interviews. However he'd been calling me at least weekly since then to run other candidates by me for another position. He seemed surprisingly candid with me. I'll call him Sam here.
I had about 20 minutes to freshen up before heading by private car to a team holiday party with a local law firm; then the head of the Private Bank took me for drinks at a restaurant while we waited for Sam and another banker. We dined on steak and pate and oysters and tartar and wine and desserts and dessert drinks. I thought the long day was finally over, but Sam ushered us into a bar next door as we walked out of the restaurant.
Soon it was just me and Sam, and it was after midnight. This is the context in which I negotiated my new compensation package. It's a little fuzzy, but he asked me what I thought in a pointed way, and I said I was ready to talk specifics. I liked everything I'd heard but it was time to see if we were on the same page, and I'd like to make a decision "either way" before the end of the year.
I think he literally said "So what's it going to take?" Or at least it was something very close to that as he smirked, obviously pleased to test my less-than-sober negotiating skills (which I suppose is a fair thing to need to judge when looking to hire a banker). I stammered, but tried to be smooth as I said "Well, based on what I make now, and the promotion I'm up for in a few months--"
He cut me off and asked what I make now. I was honest about my base salary - about $78K - but I quickly added that between bonus comp and easy-to-meet goals and the promotion I was about to get, not to mention the long term benefits such as 401k that I've accrued, that I would like to see a new base of six figures to really be persuaded to make a move and take on the new challenges.
He said there was no way I could expect that much of a bump at my company when I get promoted to VP (he used to be a manager at my firm), but he was smiling. He touted their significantly larger bonus incentives - 25% for meeting your goal, 50% for exceeding it in a fairly basic way and up to 75% if you really blow it out of the water - as though pointing out that regardless of my base salary I'd be making a lot more.
We ordered more drinks - my third Drambuie since dinner - and I smiled right back and we bantered about how aggressive my production goals would be. I claimed they seemed aggressive, and he scoffed at me, assuring me that he would personally make SURE that I reached my goal with ease each year. Finally he said, "What if I were to make your first year's bonus guaranteed? Would that make you feel better?" I smiled and shrugged and said it certainly wouldn't hurt.
Later (a minute? 20 minutes?) he handed me his iphone. He was making a list on the "lists" app, and he said "How does that look to you?" He had typed out "$90K base salary with $5K car allowance" on the first line. On the second line it said "First year Guaranteed STI of $22,500." I nodded, sipped my cocktail, and just looked at him.
"What about vacation?" I asked for some reason. I asked for four weeks, and he shook his head and typed it in. "Anything else?" he challenged, pretending to be exasperated but clearly relishing the whole exchange. So I asked about a signing bonus, my drunken confidence run amok. He raised his eyebrows and made some joke, leaning forward suddenly. I was saying that if I left before January that I would receive my year end bonus which was payable January 31.
I was distracted by his hand which was suddenly and solidly on my leg as he followed up with "Well how much are you expecting?" I ignored his hand, smiled sweetly and responded firmly, "Ten thousand ought to cover it." That is more than twice what I'm expecting, and he should know that since he knows my base, but as he whisked his hand away he dutifully typed that in too.
He added a line item for company provided iphone and ipad and asked me to review the list as we tabbed out. "I would definitely consider that offer," I assured him, then changing the subject to berate him for keeping me out past 1am. I insisted that he must be trying to test me with a full day of interviews - beginning with an early breakfast - on a decided lack of sleep.
The next afternoon, thoroughly exhausted after 10 more meetings, I met with him again and he told me to expect an offer in writing this week. Allegedly it should look "like what we discussed last night." We shall see.
:)
kredyt firmowy kredyt bez poreczycieli kredyt hipoteczny pko
05/25/2012
Containment Theory Blows Sky High: German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45; French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
The Pollyannas who thought the European recession would be short, shallow, and contained to the periphery have another thing coming. All three ideas were downright silly as I have long stated.
French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
Markit reports French private sector output falls at sharpest rate for over three years.
Markit reports German private sector returns to contraction.
For a look at the European PMI in general please see Eurozone PMI Disaster - Worst Downturn Since Mid-2009, Manufacturing and Composite at 35-Month Low; Expect Numerous GDP Downgrades, Missed Budget Targets
In the above link I stated "Europe is in a full-blown recession and for the first time in about a year we did not see any Pollyanna comments from Markit economists. Perhaps the news has sunk in that as I have repeatedly said, this recession will be long and deep and Germany would not escape."
More Pollyanna Comments from Markit
I spoke way too soon. Check out this nonsense from Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit on the German PMI report:
"Services growth held its ground during May, highlighting resilient domestic demand, but weakening manufacturing output brought the German economy at large into mild contraction for the first time since last November. The underperformance of manufacturing relative to services has not been as extreme since the low point of the recession in early 2009, with a key driver then as now being a steep downturn in export sales. May?s drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years, and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09.
?Continued service sector growth and job hiring is therefore providing an important counterbalance to manufacturing weakness. May?s upturn in service providers? confidence about the year ahead outlook is especially encouraging given the headwinds facing the manufacturing sector and ongoing worries among firms about how the euro crisis will play out.".
Service Sector Sap
Please, spare me the sap about service sector confidence in the face of severe manufacturing weakness, plunges in new orders, and an overall collapse in the European economy. The German service sector is going to follow manufacturing in due time, probably sooner rather than later.
Every step of the way pollyannas cling to the slightest hope that somehow Germany is going to avoid a recession or will decouple from the European economy. Mathematically it is nearly impossible.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years
Markit reports French private sector output falls at sharpest rate for over three years.
Key points:German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45
- Flash France Composite Output Index drops to 44.7 (45.9 in April), 37-month low
- Flash France Services Activity Index unchanged at 45.2
- Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 44.4 (46.9 in April), 36-month low
- Flash France Manufacturing Output Index declines to 43.6 (47.5 in April), 36-month low
Latest Flash PMI® data signalled that the decline in French private sector output accelerated further in May.
Marked declines in activity were recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors during May. In the former, output decreased at the fastest pace in three years, while in the latter the rate of contraction was unchanged from April?s substantial pace.
Lower activity reflected a further marked reduction in new business during May. The latest drop in new work was at a rate broadly unchanged from April?s three-year record. Panellists commented on weak market demand, lower client activity levels and economic uncertainty as factors leading to the latest fall in new business. Manufacturers reported a particularly sharp reduction in new orders, with the latest decline the fastest for just over three years.
Outstanding business fell at the sharpest rate since July 2009, with declines recorded in both manufacturing and services. Employment also decreased at a faster pace in May, with the latest drop the sharpest for over two years. Job shedding was broad-based across both sectors, with manufacturers indicating the steeper decline in payroll numbers.
Markit reports German private sector returns to contraction.
German private sector returns to contraction. Manufacturing output falls at sharpest pace for nearly three years, offsetting resilient services growth.European PMI Plunges
Key points:
- Flash Germany Composite Output Index at 49.6 (50.5 in April), 6-month low.
- Flash Germany Services Activity Index at 52.2 (52.2 in April), unchanged.
- Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 45.0 (46.2 in April), 35-month low.
- Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index at 44.6 (47.3 in April), 35-month low.
Manufacturers in Germany pointed to a drop in output for the second month running, and the rate of reduction was the steepest since June 2009.
May data highlighted divergent employment trends across the manufacturing and service sectors. Net job hiring returned to the service economy, but manufacturers signalled the greatest degree of workforce reduction since February 2010.
German private sector input cost inflation was robust and slightly faster than in April, while output charges increased at the sharpest pace since July 2011. The indices measuring inflationary pressures also showed a divergence between manufacturing and services during May.
Manufacturers reported the lowest level of input price inflation for four months, but service providers signalled a much sharper rise in their cost burdens over the month. Moreover, output price inflation in the service economy hit a 14-month high, while factory gate price inflation across the manufacturing sector was the weakest since November 2011.
For a look at the European PMI in general please see Eurozone PMI Disaster - Worst Downturn Since Mid-2009, Manufacturing and Composite at 35-Month Low; Expect Numerous GDP Downgrades, Missed Budget Targets
In the above link I stated "Europe is in a full-blown recession and for the first time in about a year we did not see any Pollyanna comments from Markit economists. Perhaps the news has sunk in that as I have repeatedly said, this recession will be long and deep and Germany would not escape."
More Pollyanna Comments from Markit
I spoke way too soon. Check out this nonsense from Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit on the German PMI report:
"Services growth held its ground during May, highlighting resilient domestic demand, but weakening manufacturing output brought the German economy at large into mild contraction for the first time since last November. The underperformance of manufacturing relative to services has not been as extreme since the low point of the recession in early 2009, with a key driver then as now being a steep downturn in export sales. May?s drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years, and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09.
?Continued service sector growth and job hiring is therefore providing an important counterbalance to manufacturing weakness. May?s upturn in service providers? confidence about the year ahead outlook is especially encouraging given the headwinds facing the manufacturing sector and ongoing worries among firms about how the euro crisis will play out.".
Service Sector Sap
Please, spare me the sap about service sector confidence in the face of severe manufacturing weakness, plunges in new orders, and an overall collapse in the European economy. The German service sector is going to follow manufacturing in due time, probably sooner rather than later.
Every step of the way pollyannas cling to the slightest hope that somehow Germany is going to avoid a recession or will decouple from the European economy. Mathematically it is nearly impossible.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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